The various metrics tracked in the Tech Channel Index (TCI) are based on a diverse sample of technology OEMs with significant sales through the channel. As a result of TCI's weekly feeds direct from channel partners and analyzed with proprietary methodology, the index is capable of providing insight into the health of the channel and the consumer well in advance of more traditional measures.

But how has the TCI compared to more traditional measures channel and consumer health? Below the TCI is compared to several common measures of inventory and sales.

US Census Inventory Data

Source: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

U.S. Census Bureau releases Inventory data covering the retailers specializing in electronics and appliances of US. The classification system used by census is NAICS 442&443. This is compared to the TCI North America Electronics Inventory/Sales Ratio which measures the inventory level present in the Electronics specialty retailers channel in North America. The stores included are the largest Electronics retailers like Best Buy, Radio Shack and Fry’s Electronics.

This chart compares the month to month change of US Census Bureau’s monthly Electronics Inventory data vs. the TCI North America Electronics Inventory. Again, there exists a strong relationship historically.

US Census Wholesale Data

Source: http://www.census.gov/econ/wholesale.html

U.S. Census Bureau releases the data (both sales and Inventory) covering wholesale trade of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software. The classification system used by census is NAICS 42343. This is compared to the TCI North AmericaDistribution Sales as well as inventory. The wholesale sector includes the largest distributors like Techdata, Ingram Micro and Synnex.

Distribution Sales:

This chart compares the month to month change of US Census Bureau’s monthly wholesale sales data vs. the TCI North America Distribution sales metric. Again, there exists a medium relationship historically.

Distribution Inventory:

This chart compares the month to month change of US Census Bureau’s monthly wholesale inventory data vs. the TCI North America Distribution inventory metric. Again, there exists a medium relationship historically.

US-ITC Export of Computers & Electronic Products

TCI EMEA vs. USITC EMEA

Source: http://dataweb.usitc.gov/

The United States International Trade Commission maintains a data web which has information on trade data and makes the data available for analysis. The classification used is NAIC - 334(USITC CTRY EMEA). This is compared to TCI EMEA Sales Index which is an indicator of sales movement of the technology products in EMEA.

The month to month change depicts that there exists a good correlation between the TCI metric and the benchmark historically.

TCI India vs. USITC India

Source: http://dataweb.usitc.gov/

Another comparison is done between US-ITC data for exports to India and TCI India. The

classification used is NAIC - 334(USITC CTRY INDIA). TCI India Sales Index is an indicator of sales movement of the technology products in India.

The month over month change in TCI India and USITC data on exports of computers and electronic products to India has a correlation of 0.66 for the period Jan 2008 to Apr 2011. This positive correlation illustrates the strength of the relationship between the two data series.